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Forza Roma Sempre!

FFP & UEFA Sanctions

The 2024/25 season officially ended yesterday, and UEFA will now assess our financial performance. To avoid sanctions, Roma needed to sell players for at least a net profit of €15 million. At the moment of writing, Tammy Abraham’s move to Besiktas saved us (€2M loan + €13M obligation to buy). If the medical goes well, we’re in good shape. But what if we didn't sell anyone? Here are the potential consequences for Roma if we didn’t offload someone for a good price at the last minute.

1. Failing to meet FFP by June 30th without significant breaches usually results in a small fine. It happened in both 2024 and 2023. Last year, we paid €3 million; the year before, it was 2. This isn't an amount to seriously worry about, especially since it's not collected immediately but withheld from future Europa League revenues.

2. The second measure is a reduced squad for European competitions. Roma would be able to register fewer players, but overall, also a tolerable punishment. A player like Salah-Eddin might be left out, but it isn't huge.

3. The probability of being excluded from the Europa League after the review is extremely low. At least, that's what the club is saying, and I trust the Friedkins here. There's no point in lying to your fanbase, especially if the club is due for a rude awakening later.

If that were all, I'd say, "Well, okay, it's a shame, disappointing, but fine." We'd somehow survive a fine the size of half of an injured Tammy Abraham's leg and the exclusion of Salah-Eddin, Saud, and our third goalkeeper. The problem is that we still have an agreement with UEFA looming over the club. It was made conditional last summer (which immediately allowed us to spend freely), but in the event of a "significant breach," UEFA can reinstate all restrictive measures.

What UEFA considers a "significant breach" is anyone's guess. And I really wouldn't want to risk it by banking on the goodwill of Eurofficials. If UEFA reinstates restrictive measures, we'll again be forced to manage within the total club expenditure on the squad, just like in 2022 or 2023. This automatically rules out big purchases, as they have very high amortization and, consequently, high costs.

It's no coincidence we brought in Ndicka, Aouar, and Dybala as free agents, bought Paredes for pennies, and loaned Wijnaldum and Sanches from friendly PSG. That's how we slipped under UEFA's restrictions. In two years, we spent just over €30 million, with the most expensive transfer of those years, Tommaso Baldanzi, happening when it was de facto understood that UEFA would agree to ease sanctions (we clearly met the easing criteria and had some leeway).

But even the prospect of being under UEFA's strict surveillance again isn't the worst part. At the end of next season, UEFA will conduct a comprehensive audit of Roma's finances for the past four years. This is the final stage of the agreement, and based on its results, the most significant restrictions are possible. There are four potential outcomes:

1. UEFA gives an "excellent" rating and releases Roma without any further issues.

2. UEFA imposes squad restrictions for the 2027/28 season.

3. UEFA prohibits the registration of new players in the 2027/28 season.

4. UEFA excludes Roma from European competitions (in the 2027/28 season or any subsequent one).

We absolutely want to avoid these restrictions, as they will inevitably harm the long-term development of the club. That's why we needed to sell: Paredes' transfer to Boca Juniors could slightly improve the situation, but without an urgent sale of Tammy, Roma wouldn't be able to balance the books.

So, Did We Balance the Books?

The 2024/25 season in Italy is officially over. From a legal perspective, all accounts are closed, and all sales, purchases, and other financial matters are now counted towards the 2025/26 season. As of today, we can start signing new players. But first, let's figure out what exactly happened and if Roma managed to balance the budget and scrape together the much-needed 13-15-18 (depending on various reports) million euros.

In short: who the hell knows. I love crunching numbers, but there are way too many unknowns right now. From what is publicly available, it appears that Roma has not managed to balance the budget. But Di Marzio claims everything was finalized. It's hard to say whether that's true or not. Here's what we know for sure.

We didn't receive the promised €20 million for Tammy Abraham as I had hoped, so my predictions about a higher transfer fee didn't quite materialize – he left for €15 million. Two more million in bonuses is achievable, but they're broken down into further clauses: we'll clearly get some amount, but those bonuses won't be accounted for right now. Tammy's residual value, according to AS Roma Data (the best observer of the Roma economy), is €11.25M. So, we made just under 4 million in net profit from Tammy. That's definitely not enough to cover the deficit. Plus, again, we somehow managed to categorize a loan with an obligation as a net sale. Didn't know that was possible, but let's go with it.

We (seemingly) didn't sell any youth players and didn't even officially send Paredes to Argentina. Why "seemingly"? Because the club could announce any deal in a couple of days, and it could have been finalized right at the end of June 30th. If today or tomorrow it turns out we did sell someone, that would clarify a lot, but as of the morning of July 1st, let's confirm: there were no other sales and no profit. So, where could the money have come from?

Hypothesis #1: A helping hand from Calafiori

This season, Riccardo Calafiori was sold to Arsenal, but not all bonuses could be paid immediately because Basel dug in their heels, trying to prove the rather absurd idea that our 40% of the proceeds didn't apply to resales. This is hardly provable, but while the court case was ongoing and the money remained with Basel, it might not have been included in the reports. By the end of the season, either the court case could have concluded, or Basel could have agreed to give up most of it for a small share; both scenarios would have added that much-needed net income. Then Calafiori would have covered the main part, Abraham would have chipped in a bit, and they would have just about broken even.

Hypothesis #2: Additional broadcast Euros from Serie A

Paolo Assogna was a proponent of this version, claiming that a dispute is currently underway between the league and the clubs, and if the league yields and pays extra, Roma would completely cover its deficit with that money alone. Don't even ask where all this came from; I've settled on the version that everything got mixed up in accounting.

Hypothesis #3: We didn't close anything

I don't rule out this option either: sales dragged on, buyers tried to get steep discounts on Ndicka and Angelino at the last minute. The club decided not to sell any of the youth players and concluded that a local UEFA fine of €3-4 million is still more profitable for us than selling key players for half price. As I wrote above, UEFA is unlikely to punish us more severely than with a fine at the moment, although in the long run, this is playing with fire. But as we say in Texas, "He who doesn't risk, doesn't go all-in on the pre-flop."

I hope we'll learn how it all resolved soon. I think we covered some of it ourselves, we'll pay some to UEFA, and overall, we'll move into the buying phase. For now, our summer reminds me of 2023, but things could be different moving forward. We'll see!