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Forza Roma Sempre!

The anticipation for the new season has almost reached its peak. We only have four days to wait until the match against Bologna. I don't know what to expect from Bologna, but I don’t expect it to be a walk in the park. On one hand, they had an outright collapse at the end of last season, sliding from 4th place down to 9th, earning just two points in their last five matches. On the other hand, they won the Coppa Italia, which could have had a positive effect on the team's morale and motivation. We play at home, the stadium will be fully packed, but in the last 6 games against Bologna, Roma won only once, while Bologna won 3 times.

I'm not expecting a brilliant start from Roma for a reason. Gasperini’s style of football is built on endurance, relentless pressing, and speed. And Roma isn't the most athletic team, so we shouldn't expect them to hit the ground running at full speed. You can't build Gasperini's system in three months; even six months might not be enough. But once the team reaches peak condition, they could become a side that bullies physically inferior opponents. I always dreaded matches against Atalanta because it felt like they never stopped running, while Roma usually faded significantly after the 60-70 minute mark. It will be interesting to eventually be on the other side of that situation and, perhaps, enjoy our own players' endless stamina.

Another reason not to get our hopes up for a flying start is Gasperini's history at his recent Serie A clubs.

Gasperini had a good start with Genoa almost 20 years ago, leading the rossoblu to promotion to Serie A. He even managed to place 5th with them, but it feels like it was an eternity ago.

Next was Inter. His tenure in Milan was brief; the club failed to win a single one of its five matches under his leadership. First came a loss to Milan in the Supercoppa Italiana, followed by a defeat to Palermo in Serie A, a loss to Trabzonspor in the Champions League, a draw with Roma, and a loss to Novara, which led to his dismissal.

Gasperini started the following season with Palermo, where the results weren't much better. The club began the season with coach Sannino, who lost the first two matches and drew one. Zamparini (Palermo's owner, RIP) decided not to waste any time, fired Sannino, and brought in Gasperini. In his first five matches, Gasperini lost twice, drew twice, and secured one victory over Chievo (with a magnificent hat-trick from Fabrizio Miccoli, one goal being a masterful volley from near the halfway line). Overall, in the first 10 matches under his guidance, Palermo won only twice – against Chievo on matchday six and against Sampdoria on matchday twelve. That victory against Sampdoria, by the way, was delivered by a young Paulo Dybala, who scored his first two of 129 Serie A goals in that match. A loss to Bologna on matchday thirteen followed, and Gasperini was fired.

Gasperini spent the 2013/14 season again with Genoa. His return to the club wasn't the smoothest either; he arrived on matchday seven and won only three of his first ten games. He was not sacked, though, and finished that season in 14th place. The very next season, he finished 6th.

At Atalanta, his start was once again difficult – he won only one of his first 5 matches and lost the other 4. The club was in second-to-last place, but Atalanta's management, unlike Inter's, trusted the coach. In the subsequent 10 matches, the picture was much brighter: 1 loss, 1 draw, and 8 wins (including a six-game winning streak), with victories over Inter, Napoli, and Roma. In a single season under Gasperini, Atalanta transformed from a club that had just returned from Serie B and finished 14th into Europa League participants with a 4th place finish.

So, what do I make of all this? Gasperini's style of play typically requires a long preparation period, the memorization of many tactical situations (I wrote about the difference in training styles here), and it rarely starts with convincing wins. However, as history shows, this is usually followed by substantial progress. If Roma's ownership trusts the coach the way Atalanta's and Genoa’s management did, the chances of a successful season will increase significantly. I hope that our American owners are not as impulsive as the Italians, and a bumpy start to the season won't lead to another Daniele De Rossi situation at the helm of Roma.

I've almost always been a proponent of giving a coach the time and support he needs. The Juric saga was an exception, of course; I was against that appointment from the beginning and expected nothing good from it. Gasperini, though similar in playing style to Juric, is a far more distinguished coach, and I expect more positive results from him.

I don't want to make any far-reaching predictions, so I'll limit myself to this: in the first five rounds, I expect at least one win, one draw, and one loss. I won't be too surprised if there are more losses than wins. After ten rounds, I see Roma in 6th place, and it's difficult to predict anything beyond that. As always, I hope to be wrong and to see Roma with ten wins in the first ten matches. Everything in this world is subject to change; maybe Gasperini's start with Roma will turn out to be the best of his career. Time will tell. For now, I'd love to just go to sleep and wake up on Saturday. And to have Manu Kone not be sold in the meantime.