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Forza Roma Sempre!

Disclaimer: I hope I am wrong and Wesley succeeds as a Roma player. He is innocent unless proven guilty. If he somehow shines, that'll be good for Roma, and I will happily express my apologies.

Wesley Franca is a 21-year-old right-back from Flamengo who got into professional football just five years ago, and by the age of 20, had already broken into Flamengo's senior team. I’ve seen several praising comments and tried to understand what this transfer means for Roma. Did we just sign a young version of Cafu who will help us win Scudetto? Or is it more of a Bruno Peres story, whom I remember only for his magical foot save in CL against Shakhtar?

Wesley is a powerful right-back, the kind you'd call a "train." The first association is Maicon, with his endless stamina and runs down the flank. Wesley, too, can run around the pitch for 3 full games straight, while attempting dribbles with mixed success and generally successfully engaging in a lot of duels with opponents. He's decent at carrying the ball, and that's pretty much the entire list of his strengths.

He’s considered a defender focused on attack who can push higher and tear up the flank. However, throughout his entire career in Brazil (136 matches), he contributed to just 10 goals. His attacking activity doesn't translate directly into goals, assists, or created chances: on average, Wesley has about 1 xG per season and creates another 2 xG for teammates.

Defensively, Wesley isn't Celik either. He's dribbled past an average of once per game in the Brazilian Serie A, and this metric hasn't changed for several seasons (a slight improvement from 1.1 in 2023; the lower the number, the better). Here I want to note that Wesley fights a lot in general, but even by percentage, he would be inferior to almost all Roma defenders. Let’s not forget that last season, Roma conceded 7 in 5 games under De Rossi and 16 in 12 under Juric (including that shameful 5-1 loss in Tuscany).

In Italy, last season, only seven players had similar or worse metrics for dribbles past per game, and four of them were from struggling teams. All of them were either midfielders or wingers. These metrics can be explained by the specifics of the midfielder position, while the wingers usually get dribbled past during high pressing. Not a single full-back in Italy has such poor dribble defense metrics as Wesley. The closest are Sabelli from Genoa (0.94 per game), Gallo from Lecce (0.9), and Valeri from Parma (0.89). The two closest full-backs from top-flight teams are Olivera from Napoli and our good old Celik Pasha with 0.66 and 0.65 per game, respectively. Are you okay with our full-back being dribbled past almost twice as often compared to when Celik’s on the pitch?

Bruno Peres, whom I mentioned in the beginning, was dribbled past around 1.12 per game on average during his career with Roma, including disgusting 1.5 in his first season.

The transfer of Wesley was often presented as the acquisition of a Club World Cup player and a Brazilian National Team player. Formally, both statements are true, but there's a catch.

When we were attempting to sign Richard Rios, the hype around him was due to his impressive performance at the Club World Cup. He became popular with many precisely because of a couple of bright matches. Wesley's story is not like that; he flopped at the CWC.

Wesley made two appearances in this Club World Cup: his mistake against Chelsea led to conceding a goal (although he looked quite lively), against Bayern, the Germans consciously pressed Wesley's zone, and he crumbled: he was dribbled past four times in the game (the worst result for Flamengo), and stopped two German breakthroughs with fouls. Wesley himself didn't complete a single dribble, cross, or key pass against Bayern.

The situation with the national team is also not all shining: Wesley was indeed called up to the Brazil National Team in March of this year, where he played two matches as well. In the first, he came on as a substitute in the 79th minute and effectively ran tired Colombians ragged. After that short performance, he got a starting spot against Argentina and was one of the reasons for the 4-1 loss, taking the honorable last place in Sofascore ratings. Later, Ancelotti took over Brazil and didn't give Wesley any more chances.

Wesley was brought in to strengthen the right side of the Roma defense. And the Brazilian isn’t a utility player; he won't shift to the left if needed or become a specialized winger. A 30-million-euro player has to be a starter. And that means something needs to be done with the other players in that position.

Mehmet Zeki Celik can play as a right center-back in a back three, but his natural position is still right-back. Celik developed well, but he's unlikely to fit into Gasperini's system. I can't imagine Mehmet as a workhorse running back and forth non-stop. So, Celik's future is a big question mark: either he's completely re-forged into a right center-back, or he's sold.

Devyne Rensch – we only signed this talent from Ajax's first team six months ago. By the way, he didn't cost €30 million, but only 6, and he spent six months adapting to Serie A. The adaptation was mediocre, but Rensch doesn't want to leave this summer; he hopes to prove himself at Roma. Rensch will be the biggest loser from Wesley's transfer.

Saud Abdulhamid – insert the "we have Wesley at home" meme here (no, this is not a note to myself that I forgot to edit). I can't name a single characteristic where Saud significantly differs from Wesley. He's physically very resilient (remember how he was the only player to pass the performance tests in the Saudi National Team?), runs all over the field, and fights like his life depends on it. At the same time, he makes defensive mistakes, causes problems, plays a bit dirty – but he compensates for it with attacking runs. Roma signed Saud for €4 million and never really gave him a chance. Maybe we should have?

And the final point: the price. I often hear about some "market realities" that supposedly make €30 million a normal price. But what are those realities really, and could the position have been filled more effectively and for cheaper?

I'll start with Alexis Saelemaekers: he's a versatile player who spent most of the season playing at right-back. Alexis is a diligent guy and actively participates in pressing. He can cover both the struggling right-back position and the empty space on the left in attack. Alexis is already integrated with the Roma squad; he's second or third at Roma in goal contributions. And Salemaekers missed the start of the season, only starting to play regularly in November. His salary was one of the lowest at Roma; Wesley's will be several times higher.

I heard the opinion that Saelemaekers is "not good enough" because he's defensively weak. But even Saelemaekers is more reliable than Wesley, both in terms of dribbles past per match and successful tackle percentage. Yes, Salemaekers isn't an outstanding defender and certainly no Celik, but if we were looking for reliability, why Wesley? And when it comes to attack, it's obvious: Alexis made more goal contributions in one season at Roma than Wesley has in his entire career (13 vs 10). At the end of the season, Salemaekers was among the top ten players in goal-creating actions in Europe's top leagues. We turned down Saelemaekers because Milan "demanded too much." "Demanded too much" translated to 20 million euros.

Inter signed Luiz Henrique this transfer window. Some might say, "Well, that's different, Henrique is a winger after all." Lately, yes, but he's more of an attacking right midfielder. And we're clearly not signing Wesley for his defensive prowess. Luiz Henrique is also a young Brazilian, and he's simply a better version of Wesley. He has experience in Europe, he's more versatile, and in his last season in France, he recorded 7 goals and 7 assists. Inter paid €25 million for such a player.

But what impresses me more is Noah Lang's transfer to Napoli. Here I'll deviate from positional correlation, but I'll note that Lang plays on the left in attack, where we have no winger at all (unless you count the aging El Shaarawy). Lang is an outstanding footballer, arguably the main star of the Eredivisie. In his last season, he recorded 11 goals and 10 assists, creates a lot, has a great conversion rate, and has been playing for the Netherlands national team for four years now. Lang is a top player who was genuinely hunted by half the clubs in Europe. Napoli signed him for €28 million.

And this is where I'd like to end the comparison. Because it's frustrating. We're spending €55 million on Wesley and El Aynaoui. Napoli is spending €58 million on Lang and Bekema. Napoli is extending champion Conte with the highest salary in Italy; we're taking Gasperini, who has never finished higher than third, on the second or third highest salary in Italy. Napoli isn't richer than us, but the gap between us is much larger. They seem smarter.

I've always been sceptical towards the Brazilian Serie A and don't welcome the idea of spending €25-30 million on guys who perform well there. I don't think they play bad football there; they are playing different football and, with rare exceptions, adaptation is needed after Brazil. Players who were amongst the best in Brazil often struggle to find their feet in Europe, and many return home.

A transfer from Brazil is a gamble, and the chance of a player succeeding is less than fifty-fifty. This gamble is perfectly acceptable when you're spending disposable income: if it pays off, you get a top player; if not, so be it, no big deal. But we treat these transfers as the foundation of our transfer window: both Wesley and Rios were seen as key players who must play whenever available. And that creates a risk.

To back this up, I've compiled all transfers from Brazil to Europe's top 5 leagues over the past 10 years. The minimum threshold is €20 million. You ready?

Endrick, ST: Moved to Real Madrid at 18 y/o in the summer of 2024 for €47.5M. Had an unsuccessful season in rotation, scoring 1 goal in La Liga.

Vitor Reis, CB: Moved to Manchester City at 18 y/o last winter for €37M. Played 3 times, most likely will be loaned out to Girona.

Gabriel Jesus, ST: Moved to Manchester City at 19 y/o in the winter of 2016 for €32M and immediately became a starter, scoring 24 goals in his first calendar year.

Luis Guilherme, RW/LW: Moved to West Ham at 19 y/o last winter for €23M. Played less than 200 minutes.

Danilo Oliveira, CM/DM: Moved to Nottingham Forest at 21 y/o for €20M in the winter of 2023 for €20M. Immediately became a starter and played regularly, but broke his ankle in the opening game of the 2024/25 season, missed almost the entire season, and moved back to Brazil to play for Botafogo for €23M.

Vinicius Jr., LW/ST: Moved to Real Madrid at 18 y/o in the summer of 2018 for €45M. Adapted for the first three seasons: 103 matches in La Liga and Champions League, 12 goals + 8 assists. Then started tearing it up; now one of the best in the world.

Lucas Paqueta, CM/AM/LW: Moved to Milan at 21 y/o in the winter of 2019 for €35M. Completely flopped, recording 1 goal + 3 assists in one and a half seasons, and left for Marseille for almost half the price.

Matheus Franca, AM: Moved to Crystal Palace at 19 y/o in the summer of 2023 for €20M+€10M. Played 14 matches in his first season and 9 in his second (less than 200 minutes, too).

Reinier, AM: Moved to Real Madrid at 18 y/o in the winter of 2020 for €30M. Hasn't played a single match for Real to this day, failed at Borussia Dortmund, Girona, Frosinone, and Granada. Worth €1.5 million at 23 years old, according to transfermarkt.

Gerson (our old friend), CM/DM/RW: Moved to Marseille at 24 y/o in the summer of 2021 for €25M. Had a solid first season, then drastically declined in his second, and returned to Flamengo in the winter of 2022.

Gabriel Moscardo, CM/DM: Moved to PSG at 18 y/o in the winter of 2024 for €20M. Spent a year on loan at Reims, played 255 minutes, scored 1 goal.

Arthur Melo, CM/DM: Moved to Barcelona at 22 y/o in the summer of 2018 for €31M+€9M. Did not become "the new Iniesta," was quite poor in his first year, then improved, but completely faded after his transfer to Juventus. He’s back from loan in Girona, and we’ll see if Tudor finds him a spot in the roster (I bet he doesn’t).

Rodrygo, ST/RW: Moved to Real Madrid at 19 y/o in the summer of 2019 for €45M. Immediately started tearing it up in the Champions League, took time to adapt in La Liga, but maintained his level. Became a top player.

Gabriel Barbosa, ST: Moved to Inter at 20 y/o in the summer of 2016 for €29.5M. Failed catastrophically. Played 184 minutes for Inter, 43 minutes for Benfica a year later, and went back to Brazil.

Andre, CM/DM: Moved to Wolverhampton at 23 y/o in the summer of 2024 for €22M. Became a starter, played almost the entire season without substitutions.

Lucas Beraldo, CB: Moved to PSG at 20 y/o for €20M in the winter of 2023 for €20M. Became a solid rotation player.

I didn't include Neymar due to the age of his transfer, or Gerson's time at Roma, because only €18.5 million was paid. Yes, €20 million for PSG is a much less significant amount than €18.5 million for Roma, but criteria are needed.

The picture is bleak. All these guys established themselves brilliantly in Brazil, hence the prices. But excellent play in Brazil doesn't immediately translate to excellent play in Europe. At best, a player adapts for several years; at worst, he fails and leaves. The problem is, clubs like Real, Man City, or PSG won’t even notice spending €30M+. Roma, on the other hand, just spent probably ¼ of the transfer budget on a dark horse from Brazil.

Does this mean Wesley’s transfer is doomed to fail? No. Everyone has a chance to join the narrow ranks of Gabriel Jesuses and Rodrygos, who continued to play on their level in Europe immediately. But on average, such transfers are a very risky gamble. Let’s not forget about the limit for non-EU players, the stereotypical lack of discipline, parties, and nightclubs. It is much easier to adapt to Serie A when you’re from France, Spain, or even Germany than when you’re from Brazil.